Breaking News:
Jameis Winston and the Saints agreed to a 1 year deal, sending him to New Orleans in a back-up capacity for the first time in Winston’s career. Say what you want to about Jameis, yes his 30-30 season was hilarious and the memes are brilliant. This contract is brilliant for both sides. The Saints are are assuming very little risk with just a 1 year deal, and Jameis is showing that he is willing to work behind one of the best QB's in the game to get himself back into the starting lineup. If this experiment does not work out, the Saints can simply move on from Winston next year. If the Saints see a future starter in Jameis, they should be able to keep Winston for a reasonable amount of money given the QB's up and down career thus far. Personally, I am not ready to give up on the 26 year old former 1st overall pick just yet.
Who is Jameis Winston, the player?:
In 2015 Winston was selected 1st overall by the Bucs. He was immediately thrust into the starting role at just 21 years old. Winston never had the opportunity to learn behind a veteran, he was just a kid playing in a league of men. When comparing Winston’s rookie year to Sam Darnold who also took over his team’s starting job at the age of 21 (Darnold took over in week 3 of 2018), Winston threw for more yards (1,177 more yards to be exact), more touchdowns and less interceptions than Darnold did in his rookie campaign. We still consider Darnold to be an immensely talented QB with a bright future, and rightfully so. Jameis possesses the physical tools to be a NFL starter, and even with cringe worthy moments like 'Eat a W', Jameis is a player who works his ass off and leads by example.
Looking Deeper:
Adding context to Jameis’s career is important. From 2016-2018, the Buccaneers have consistently had a terrible defense. A terrible defense will obviously land the team in negative game scripts. In 2019, their defense started to find an identity, but for much of the year they were pretty miserable. Pair that with a brand new offensive system headed up by coach Bruce Arians. Winston had a couple of factors working against him this year.
“But 30 interceptions in a single season is literally one of the worst seasons of all time!” Yeah, I get it. But outlier seasons happen all the time. Pro-Football-Reference has a list of the highest interceptions thrown by a QB in a single season, there are FIVE Hall of Fame Quarterbacks ahead of Jameis Winston on that list, four of the five threw more than 30 INTs in their infamous seasons. See for yourself here:
What I am trying to say is, outlier seasons exist in both a good and a bad context. When a player has a season that is out of this world GOOD, we don’t think that player is an automatic HOF player. Look at LeGarret Blount, in 2017 he scored 18 rushing TDs. Everyone knew that wasn’t because Blount was that good. He had an exceptionally good year. In 2019 Jameis gave us one of the most head scratching seasons from a QB in recent history. Over 5,000 passing yards, over 30 TDs… But those 30 INTs are what defines Winston’s historic season. There are only 8 quarterbacks in NFL history that have eclipsed 5,000 yards in a season, but it’s all about the INTs. What if we looked at his 30 INTs the same way we looked at Blount’s 18 rushing TDs? What if we were like 'surely such a historic season won’t be repeated again'? Nah, let’s let a 2018 season of poor head coaching and no commitment to a single starting QB; and a 2019 season in a brand new offense marred with INT’s define a 26 year old QB who just joined elite company (in a good way) for throwing for over 5,000 yards, and also joined some other HOF QB’s in throwing for 30+ INTs in a single season.
Was 2019 ‘good’? Obviously it wasn't great, Winston was out of a job for months before the Saints made their move for him. Was 2018/2019 who Jameis Winston is? I choose not to think so. If we do not define players based on their BEST seasons, we should also not define players based on their WORST seasons. Peyton Manning is still a first ballot Hall of Fame QB despite Manning’s historically bad final season, but he was held up by an amazing defense lead the Manning to in his 2nd Super Bowl. No one will argue that Peyton Manning is among the elite of the elite QB’s to ever play the game. I am not saying that Jameis Winston is Peyton Manning, or that he will be as good as Peyton Manning (If you look at the stats side by side, Jameis and Peyton got off to very similar starts). What I am saying is Jameis Winston is NOT the QB that he is being depicted as right now. Obviously by year 5 we would have hoped to see Jameis clean some of these mistakes up, but there are some circumstances beyond Winston's control that factor in to his roller coaster of a career so far.
What is Jameis’s NFL future?:
The New Orleans Saints signing Winston is brilliant. The contract is very low risk, and the reward could be massive as well. Drew Brees is one of the most accurate QB’s we have ever seen in the NFL. Winston’s biggest weakness is his accuracy and decision making (especially under pressure). Sometimes we will just see Jameis throw up a prayer ball instead of taking a sack or throwing the ball away. This year in New Orleans, Winston will have the opportunity for the first time in his career to play backup to one of the GOATs. Winston has exceptional work ethic, it is obvious that he wants to succeed. Winston agreeing to a back-up role, especially THIS back-up role shows that he wants to address his weaknesses and emerge as a top end QB in this league. Sean Payton and the Saints totally resurrected the career of Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater’s situation was different than Winston’s, but both QB’s were cast aside by the rest of the NFL. Winston finds himself in a career defining moment, this could be make or break for him. If Winston can make the most of his opportunity in New Orleans this year and the team chooses to move forward with him has their QB of the future, Winston (still just 26 years old, people) will emerge from all of this adversity in one of the most prolific offensive systems we have seen in the NFL over the past 10 years. If Winston’s future is in New Orleans, he will not only return to being an elite fantasy QB, he will have a chance to re-write his legacy as a NFL QB and eat a whole lot of W's along the way.
-Zack Housholder
Sources: Pro-Football-Reference / teamrankings.com